Bitcoin ‘nuke’ warning as Fed rate hike decision looms — Dollar index hits 20-year high

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Bitcoin (BTC) underwent a weak rebound on Sept. 21, and the U.S. dollar jumped to a new yearly high as investors await Sept. 21’s Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate decision.

BTC price holds $19K ahead of Fed decision

BTC’s price has managed to cling on to $19,000 with a modest daily gain of 1.33% . Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength versus a pool of top foreign currencies, rose to 110.86, the highest level in 20 years.

BTC/USD vs. DXY daily price chart. Source: TradingView

FOMC rate hike scenarios

The Federal Reserve is poised to discuss how far it could raise its benchmark lending rates to curb record inflation. Interestingly, the market expects the U.S. central bank to hike rates by 75 or 100 basis points (bps).

The ramification of higher interest rates will likely result in alower appetite for riskier assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. Conversely, the U.S. dollar will serve as the go-to safe haven for investors escaping risk-on assets.

“There seems no reason for the Fed to soften the hawkishness shown at the recent Jackson Hole symposium, and a [0.75 percentage point] ‘hawkish hike’ should keep the dollar near its highs of the year,” analysts at ING told the Financial Times.

Independent market analyst PostyXBT argues that a 100 bps rate can “nuke” Bitcoin below its current technical support of $18,800. He also suggests that BTC has a good chance of recovery if the rate hike turns out to be lower than expected, or 50 bps.

These speculations echo general rate hike expectations. John Kicklighter, the chief strategist at DailyFX, notes that a 50 bps rate hike would be bullish for the U.S. benchmark stock market index.

Nonetheless, a 100 bps rate hike would be extremely bearish for the S&P 500. This could be equally problematic for Bitcoin, whose correlation with stocks has been consistently positive since December 2021.

FOMC policy decision scenarios for DXY and SPX. Source: John Kicklighter/DailyFX

Polls expect a 75 bps rate hike

The U.S. economy suffered two back-to-back quarters of negative growth. Moreover, its manufacturing PMI pointed to the slowest growth in factory activity since July 2020. Meanwhile, the two-year U.S.Treasury returns have crossed above the 10-year U.S. Treasury returns, plotting a yield curve.

Related: What’s next for Bitcoin and the crypto market now that the Ethereum Merge is over?

These metrics raise the alarm about an impending recession. But offsetting those are unemployment data at its record low and housing starter rates still above their danger zone of $1.35 million, according to data presented by Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments.

Total new privately-owned housing units started. Source: FRED

Normally, recession warnings prompt the Fed to pivot. In other words, to scale back or pause hiking rates. But Edwards notes that the central bank will not pivot since the U.S. economy is technically not in recession.

“Until major concerns of recession show up, until it hurts where it counts — employment — there is no reason to expect an urgent change in Fed policy here,” he wrote, adding:

“So it is business as usual until we have evidence that inflation is under control.”

Most economists, or 44 of the 72 polled by Reuters, also predict that Fed would raise rates by 75 bps in their September meeting. Therefore, Bitcoin could avoid a deeper correction if it maintains its correlation with the S&P 500, based on Kicklighter’s outlook.

Bitcoin to $14K next?

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin could drop to $14,000 in 2022 if a drop below its current support level of around $18,800 triggers a “head-and-shoulders” breakdown.

BTC/USD daily price chart featuring head-and-shoulder breakdown setup. Source: TradingView

Conversely, a rebound from the $18,800-support could have BTC’s price eye $22,500 as its interim upside target, or a 16.5% rise from today’s price

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.